2023 Presidency:
THE ODDS AGAINST TINUBU
By Leye Adio
The Lion of Bourdillon looked somewhat tamed. He looked deserted as most of his hardcore loyalists who usually thronged his presence at such big occasions were nowhere to be found. For close watchers, Asiwaju's state of mind is a crystal reflection of the frustration dogging his bid for the Nigerian presidency in 2023.
In his declaration speech, the former Lagos State Governor said he desired to step into Buhari's shoe without stepping on the president's toes. But sources close to the seat of power in Abuja revealed that Tinubu's age long desire may not have hit the right cord before the president as findings have revealed Buhari is not disposed to Tinubu's presidency on account of the latter's disrespect for him.
"The president met him twice on Ambode's matter and twice he turned the president down insisting that Ambode was rejected by the party leadership in Lagos but we all know he is the absolute APC leader in Lagos. For the president to have interceded on Ambode's behalf meant he has an interest in the matter and would have been a great honour and respect for the president if Tinubu had acceded to his request," one of our sources told our correspondent.
This seeming embarrassment of the president according to findings is being used to de-market the former Lagos State Governor before the president. They have continued to remind the president of the dishonour and lack of respect he accorded him during the Ambode affair.
"If Tinubu could turn down Buhari while he is the president, you can be sure he would treat him with worst ignominy when he (Tinubu) eventually becomes the president. Hence, he could not be trusted to step into Buhari's shoes without stepping on his toes," our source further revealed.
More worrisome is the seeming discord between Tinubu and almost all his former foot-soldiers currently serving under Buhari. These former accolytes such as Babatunde Fashola, Rauf Aregbesola, Lai Mohammed, Muiz Banire, Olorunibe Mamora, Kayode Opeifa, Joke Orelope Adefulure, Late Adenrele Adeniran-Ogunsanya, Tunde Fowler, Ade Rahman Ipaiye etc are all reportedly nursing one grudge or the other against their former god-father. For this reason, they are said not to be favourably disposed to Tinubu's bid for the presidency and as such many of them are said to have deep seated animosity against him.
The recent public outburst of the Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola against Tinubu sources said has further signpost the simmering impasse within the Tinubu political empire. The former Osun State Governor was the commander of Tinubu's political empire until he took his boss to the cleaners for the poor treatment meted out to him by Osun State Governor, Gboyega Oyetola, who incidentally is Tinubu's cousin. Aregbesola had reason to complain that he's not getting the kind of unalloyed loyalty he has been given to Tinubu from his cousin, Gboyega.
Like Aregbesola, Works and Housing Minister Babatunde Fashola equally has an axe to grind with his political god-father for the latter's decision not to nominate him for ministerial appointment in 2015 following the election of Muhamadu Buhari as president. Despite being the poster boy of the APC, Fashola did not have any doubt of being the obvious ministerial nominee of Asiwaju from Lagos. But he was proved wrong as his supposed god-father nominated Wale Edun instead. However, Muhamadu Buhari saved Fashola from the impending shame as he not only picked him as minister but also gave him three portfolios to manage. Close watchers said the development had marked a sordid point in the god-father and god-son relationship.
For Information minister, Lai Mohammed, who was Chief of Staff to Tinubu when the latter was Governor of Lagos between 1999 and 2003, the centre can no longer hold between the two as political differences have put them at loggerheads. Stories were told about how Tinubu jettisoned Mohammed's ambition to become governor of Kwara State in 2019 only for him to anoint Abdulrahman Abdulrazak as APC gubernatorial candidate in Kwara State. Abdulrazak eventually became governor of the state. The loss of the gubernatorial ticket was a personal tragedy for Muhammed who blamed it all on Tinubu for not reposing the trust he had for him.
Further investigations have also revealed that the trio of Aregbesola, Fashola and Mohammed who hitherto were known loyalists of Asiwaju all have misgivings for their former boss whom they accused of pervasive and selfish tendencies inimical to their own ambition.
"The three of them have now realize Asiwaju betrayed them for his own selfish interest. Beside, they believe he is no longer comfortable with them because of their rising profiles. They abhor lots of grudges against but they have decided not to fight him publicly but have remained indifferent to his presidential ambition. Many may label then betrayers but the bigger betrayer here is Tinubu who has proven to them that his presidential ambition is more important to him than their individual ambitions and could therefore sacrifice them to achieve his aim," says our sources who craved anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the matter.
Continuing, he explained. "Tinubu knew he no longer command the respect and loyalty of Aregbesola, Fashola, Mohammed and his other foot-soldiers in the Buhari cabinet because he has not been fair to them and they have chosen to be indifferent to his presidential ambition.
"As we speak, Tinubu has not called them individually or collectively to inform them of his ambition. What that means is that he does not factor in their contribution to the success of his ambition and that has a fatal implication because these guys can pull so many strings on his behalf. And this is a big disadvantage to Tinubu's ambition. This is what his opponents are taking advantage of. Imagine if three of Buhari's trusted men queue up behind Asiwaju or are in the forefront of his campaign, certainly things would be better for him. It is better for him to call these guys and settle whatever differences they may have against him otherwise they may pull the rug from his feet."
After the brutal acceptance that power must shift to the South according to the unwritten law of the APC, the choice of the next president must be one that must conforms with the Northern Agenda. According to investigation, the core Fulanis consider North Central as being populated by the minority in the North and as such could not relinquish sensitive political positions to the minority. It is for this reason that Northern political leaders are favourably disposed to a Christian president which would invariably allow them to have a Muslim Fulani as vice president in the next political dispensation. For clarity, the Northern Fulani interest is best kept with a Christian president from the South and a Fulani Muslim vice president.
By implication, such interest does not support a Tinubu presidency because he is a Muslim and would therefore have a Christian vice president. "The Fulani will never subscribe to having a Christian minority as vice president because we are talking about a vice president whom the North must defer to for the next four years as their political leader They consider it an abomination to defer to a Christian because they consider it their birth right."
The Fulani interest aptly subsisted when Atiku Abubakar, a Muslim from Adamawa State (North West) was Vice President to President Olusegun Obasanjo between 1999 and 2007. The same applied when Namadi Sambo, also a Muslim from Kaduna State was Vice President to former President, Goodluck Jonathan between 2010 and 2015. Thus, it is not likely the rule would change in the 2023 presidential election.
Besides, it is rumoured that the last time these billionaires had dealings with Asiwaju, it ended on a sordid note as funds meant for President Muhamadu Buhari presidential campaign for the 2019 election was not delivered and accounted for.
the battle line is drawn already ..so lets all sit and watch how events will unfold ...Eleshin thinks
ReplyDelete