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Ogun 2027: Yayi Walking On A Tight Rope?

. As Egbas Lay Claim To Governorship

By Lanre Olaleye

Despite his overwhelming popularity, Ogun West senator, Solomon Olamilekan Adeola may be walking a tight rope in his ambition to win the state governorship election in 2027.

Since his incursion into the political space more than two decades ago, Senator Adeola has consistently won competitive parliamentary elections at state and federal levels across two states on six consecutive occasions. To political analysts, that is no fluke by any standard as only a few politicians in Nigeria can boast of such variegated and progressive political success and across states acceptability.

As political scheming and calculations are gradually tilting towards the 2027 governorship elections in Ogun State, Senator Adeola’s name has continued to reverberate across the political landscape of the state as the most likely successor to Gov. Dapo Abiodun.

 Yayi as he is fondly called by his admirers seems to have what it takes to become governor in 2027. A fat financial war chest, an octane political connection and outstanding popularity seem to place him in good stead to realize this ambition.

Expectedly, Yayi would throw his hat into the gubernatorial ring as a bonafide son of Ilaro in Ogun West Senatorial District, the only senatorial district yet to produce an elected governor since the creation of the state on February 3^rd 1976. This singular sentiment is gravitating the whole of Ogun West to a first ever governorship slot in the history of the state and they are rooting for Yayi to make this happen in 2027.

However, this dream appears daunting as Ogun Central predominantly populated by the Egbas are reportedly mounting a spirited opposition that would upset the political arithmetic leading to the governorship poll in 2027. The Snoop exclusively gathered from multiple sources that the Egbas are keen on producing the next governor come 2027. Their quest for power to return to the centre, according to sources is premised on the claim that power oscillates between Ogun Central (Egbas) and Ogun East (Ijebu/Remo) in democratic dispensation. They ventilate their position on the fact that Ogun East has produced three governors in Olabisi Onabanjo, Gbenga Daniel and now Dapo Abiodun while Ogun Central have had two governors in Olusegun Osoba and Ibikunle Amosun, positing that power should naturally return to the centre after Gov. Dapo Abiodun completes his two terms.

Shedding light on the development, a source close to Egba power-brokers who pleaded anonymity said it is not a misnomer for the Egbas to produce the next governor in 2927. ‘We all know that power rotates only between the Egbas and the Ijebu/Remo. Yewa/Awori are not part of the power blocs and that is why no one has ever emerged as governor from that bloc,’ our source begins.

‘From inception, the Egbados (Yewa) were part of Egba until they broke away from Egba for fear of being dominated. Then, they decided to stand alone as Yewa/Awori. But they are not politically strong enough to become power-brokers in Ogun State because that would upset the power sharing formula between the Egbas and the Ijebu/Remo which has been sustained since the birth of democratic governance in Ogun State.’

Continuing, our source added: ‘The Ijebu/Remo were almost faced with similar problem in the past when Remo people agitated for self-determination in power sharing but they quickly aligned with the Ijebus and since then Remo has produced two governors (Gbenga Daniel and Dapo Abiodun) from the Ijebu power bloc.

‘I honestly expect the Yewa/Awori people to tow the same line with Remo if they ever want to produce governor unless the Egbas accommodate them to become part of them.  Otherwise, the Yewa/Awori governorship dream is dead on arrival because it is not happening. The Egba cannot wait for another eight years to produce governor’, our source maintained.

He further disclosed that the Egbas have patiently waited for eight years to taste power again after the Ijebu/Remo complete their own share of power rotation. ‘Hence, the Egbas are vigorously pursuing the Egba Agenda come 2027,’ he posited.

To realize their ambition, the Egbas are reportedly searching for their best candidate from among the array of top politicians in their midst across the seven local governments areas of Ogun Central senatorial district. Notable names being touted include the current Ogun Central senator, Sen. Shuaibu Afolabi Salisu; former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole and current Minister for Finance, Wale Edun.

Among the possible choices, Shuaib Afolabi Salisu and Olawale Edun’s name reverberate more t among the likely contenders. A surprise inclusion, Afolabi Salisu is the senator representing Ogun Central District in the Upper Legislative House. He served as the immediate past Chief of Staff to Gov. Abiodun, holding the second most powerful position after the Secretary to the State Government, Tokunbo Talabi.

He secured his senate seat on the strength of his close relationship with Gov. Abiodun. Speculation suggests he may well become the next Governor on the same strenght. He has reportedly maintained extraordinary closeness and loyalty to the Governor, even after transitioning to the senate. His unwavering loyalty, coupled with the fact that he hails from a high-voter area which expectedly would produce Gov. Abiodun’s successor, is said to be working in his favour.

 Aside being a prince from Ake, Abeokuta, Wale Edun, former Lagos State Commissioner for Finance and the current Minister for Finance is the most influential and a key member of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. A member of the inner caucus and remains the highest ranking political office holder from Ogun State. Many top politicians in the state are reportedly inclined to support the Ake prince due to his closeness to the president whom they believe  may likely support his governorship ambition. 

Though, yet to officially signify his intention to vie for the governorship seat in 2027, close watchers revealed that he has begun surreptitious political moves ahead of the 2027 governorship election by holding strategic consultative meetings with stakeholders from Ogun Central senatorial district.        

Expectedly, the ambitious scheming from these prominent Egba sons is facing strong opposition from likely quarters as Ilaro-born former Chief Press Secretary (CPS) to Gov. Olusegun Olusegun Osoba and Chief of Staff to Senator Yayi, Chief Kayode Odunaro has vehemently opposed the suggestion of ceding the governorship to Ogun Central. In an exclusive interview with The Snoop, the trained journalist dissuade the notion that power only rotates between the Egbas and Ijebu/Remo, noting that it is a fact of history that Yewa/Awori have been largely short changed since the inception of democratic rule in the state.

’From the first democratic administration of Chief Olabisi Onabanjo to Chief Olusegun Osoba, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Senator Ibikunle Amosun and now, Prince Oladapo Abiodun, ultimate political power in Ogun State since its creation have oscillated between the two aforementioned senatorial districts and their major ethnic configuration of Egbas, Ijebus and Remos to the exclusion of Ogun West senatorial district of Yewa and Awori,’ he begins.

Chief Odunaro declared such arrangement is unjust and unequitable and detrimental to equal development across the state. ‘I will out rightly state that it is an unjust and inequitable situation that something must be done to redress urgently in the over 48 years history of Ogun State. And of course, the situation has its implication for the uneven development of the state as a whole and the underdevelopment of Ogun West in particular. For the state, it is clear that whatever development the fact of political leaderships has conferred on the two ruling senatorial districts, is detracted by the low-level development of the remaining senatorial district.

‘More like a man keeping his courtyard and living rooms clean while the kitchen and backyard is left in a state of squalor. The total outlook is negative for such a household. Holistic development of all parts of Ogun State is ultimately in the interest of all Ogun State indigenes and the earlier power is allowed to rotate among all the senatorial districts and its people the better for its development and the sense of equity, fair play and justice,’ He declared.

Despite past failures and conspiracies, Chief Odunaro is however optimistic Yewa/Awori’s clamour for governorship is more realistic now than ever before. He insisted that the desire of the current administration to remedy decades of political injustices would make it imperative for power to shift to Ogun West in 2027. ‘The possible desire of the party leadership at the national level to redress decades of political injustice among its member states will work in our favour. The calculation here for the party is to be seen as a party of equity and justice for its members. It is therefore not inconceivable for all political parties to decide that for equity and justice sake, the governorship ticket should be ceded to Yewa and Awori aspirants after almost five decades since the creation of the state.’

He continued: ‘The ruling political party in the state and at the national level, All Progressives Congress, (APC) are likely to buy this argument not only for its justifiability and equity but its electoral value and calculations. From the records, this was one of the major considerations of the party in the recently conducted and won election in Edo State. The candidate of APC that won the election and now sworn in as Governor, Senator Monday Okpebholo was chosen for the simple reason of redressing an albatross in the power equation of Edo State as his senatorial district has been shut out of the power equation for decades. Ogun state happens to be about the only state in Nigeria that is afflicted with this albatross and it is realistic to think that come 2027, the situation will be remedied.’   

In similar vein, a member of the House of Representatives representing Ado Odo-Ota constituency, Hon. Tunji Akinosi, has warned political leaders from Yewa/Awori in Ogun West Senatorial district against what he called monolithic agenda and divisive politics.

He blamed repeated failures of the region in the past governorship elections on divisive politics, urging political leaders to purge themselves from the same tendencies if Ogun West must break the jinx in the next election.

Akinosi in a press statement reportedly said this while speaking as a guest at Yewa Day 2024, in London. The former commissioner for Forestry also called for caution against the impression that the Awori people have no ambition to become governor in 2027.

While alluding to the imperative of Ogun West producing its first governor since the creation of Ogun State, he called for a genuine and inclusive process in identifying and delivering such a person.

The federal legislator gave a historical trajectory of the plagued Ogun West governorship agenda starting from 2011, and said it will amount to repeated failure if the approach is not reviewed.

He highlighted how the divisive politics among the Yewas had botched the plan that would have easily been achieved a long time ago. Akinosi therefore warned towing the same path ahead of 2027, no matter what is invested, would not deliver a different result.

He said, ‘If the Yewas are genuinely concerned about the Ogun West agenda and its development, it must start with jettisoning the idea that only they can represent the Ogun West governorship agenda.’

The lawmaker said the Aworis, which he represents, have not sat or signed with anyone or having no ambition to occupy the seat in 2027. He further suggested that ‘an ethno political agenda such as this starts with unity and cooperation from home and a more nuanced understanding and participation across the board.’

This, he added, must involve and include the traditional leaders, the politicians, professionals, and other critical and key players in the Ogun West region.